What is the real cause of global simultaneous stock price decline?

投稿日:2018年11月1日 更新日:

Calorie is sensitive to heat
What kind of logic! What? (T_T)

Since October, stock prices worldwide are declining.
Foreign exchange is somewhat held by the dollar’s high yen appreciation, but New York Dow and the Nikkei average record the downwards rarely seen in recent years.

As the cause of the global simultaneous stock price decline,

· Rising interest rates on US Treasury bonds
· Concern about US-China trade war
· Rebound from monetary easing
· Political instability in Turkey and Saudi Arabia
· President Trump’s abuse and impevery concern
· Tax increase determined by consumption tax 10%

Although it is cited, it is thought that none of the Sage magazines are essential reasons.

Why does stock price and exchange rate collapse?
It seems that it simply rose.

Nikkei Stock Average Challenge Chart

Due to the national policy of recent years, the stock market of Japan and the United States is in a bubble state.
New York Dow has renewed record highs one after another, and the Nikkei average is over twice the number before Avenomics.

Why did the stock price rise so much?
Is it because the economy has grown?
Regardless of America, economic scale suddenly doubles in Japan suddenly declining as population declines due to the declining birthrate and aging population.

Stock prices rise because there are more buy orders than sell orders.
The Abe administration bought a huge ETF through different dimension relaxation, and the stock price rose as the hedge fund and individual investor followed it.

BOJ Kuroda quantitative easing comparison

Besides investors and public institutions that are eligible for discounts for decades, stocks bought for speculative purposes will be sold one day.
Whether it is a margin transaction or an in-kind transaction, the position will not benefit unless it is settled.

Settlement orders are reverse trading.
In other words, there is a lot of potential selling orders in the state of stocks.
Whether it is a profit or a stop loss, the cancellation of the position certainly causes a decline.

In that sense, the high stock price itself is the biggest risk for investors.
An amateur judges that the market is good by looking at the stock price, but rather it may be better to think that it is dangerous when the stock price is steady.

New York Dow

Many hedge funds will close their accounts in November.
Considering the period until cancellation, you have to arrange positions to a certain extent a month ago.
So, it will be an opportunity to settle the positions accumulated in this October.

There may not be so many funds selling orders for settlement of accounts.
However, if the stock price or the exchange rate goes down for that reason, investors who judged that they hit the ceiling will also start to gain profit.
If further declines continue, AI will sense the trend and set up a short sale, and the fall will accelerate rapidly with the throw of slop loss.

Rising interest rates and credit concerns of US Treasury bonds, and domineering policies of President Trump may also be a trigger for stock price declines.
However, the essence of stock weakness should still be considered as reaction to the stock price so far.

Dollar denominated Nikkei average chart

“Mountain if high mountain valley deep”

As you can imagine, the bigger the stock’s turnover, the worse the downside will be when it is turned over.
If Aveclo pushed Nikkei upwards by more than 10,000 yen in the government stock market, it should be considered that there is of course room for such a drop.

There are no stocks that will keep rising forever.
Stock prices that are too expensive are always adjusted someday.

Even though there is no way to return to the original soon as there is support for the BOJ and the pension now, even from the original Japanese economy the current stock price is too high.
It is a blunt talk as a trader to go to the right in about 1 to 20% lower than the high price.

There are a lot of people who are pleased with the stock price rise in avenomics, but it is not necessarily a pleasure for our investors.
The fact that the stock price rose means that the pioneer lifts the stock and is waiting for the present time as to whether it is now or not.
It also means that the adjustment made by that reverse trading is pushed to us who came later.

It is the greatest risk for investors that the stock price contrary to economic competence is the most important.






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